Population News: How our ageing population will drive up public spending: the data

How our ageing population will drive up public spending: the data: "

Britain's public spending could reach record levels
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Public spending as a percentage of GDP will rise to more than 63% of national income by 2030 says a think-tank today to meet the rising costs of ageing, an unexpected fertility boom, climate change and the cost of replacing decrepit infrastructure.

The 2020 Public Services Trust calls for a 'system redesign' of government to head of a permanent fiscal crisis. In the worst case scenario, if growth remains sluggish - averaging just 1.75% - then public spending would reach £880m - eating up almost two thirds of GDP within two decades. By contrast the Treasury model says this would not rise above today's level of public spending which is already at a 29 year high at 45% of GDP.

The report, entitled The Longer Term View, says that Britain may have to do 'less with less' and that the current model is unsustainable. 'Tax receipts have stayed fairly constant - at about 35% of GDP - since the 1970s. We have relied until now on borrowing to fill the gap between public spending and revenues. But as net public debt reaches 80% GDP, we can no longer afford to borrow our way out of the deficit,' says the report.

The paper also challenges the Treasury model which assumes that spending on defence, public order, housing stays constant - and even falls - in the decades to come.

That 'worst-case' scenario is played out in this data from the Trust, showing how its estimates reach 63% (see the above graphic at full screen with more options). Download the data below - and let us know what you can do with it.